USA – After a sharp run-up earlier this month, gas prices in Florida appear to have settled into a narrower range over the past week. As of March 27, AAA listed Florida’s average price for regular at $3.927 per gallon, compared with a U.S. average of $3.978. Florida is also just slightly below where it was a week ago, when the statewide average stood at $3.950.
That does not mean prices are cheap again. It does mean the panic phase has cooled, at least for now. AAA’s national data shows the U.S. average is still up about 10 cents from a week ago and roughly $1.00 higher than a month ago, a jump AAA tied to elevated crude prices as conflict in the Middle East pushed energy markets higher.
In Florida, the week-to-week picture has been relatively steady by comparison. AAA’s Florida page shows the statewide regular average at $3.927 today, versus $3.879 yesterday and $3.950 a week ago. That is not exactly flat, but it does suggest the market has stopped making the kind of dramatic daily moves drivers were seeing earlier in the month.
There is also some regional variation inside the state. On March 27, AAA listed Bradenton-Sarasota-Venice at $3.943, Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater at $3.934, and West Palm Beach-Boca Raton at $4.072 for regular unleaded. In other words, the statewide average may look stable, but some metro areas are still running noticeably above others.
The near-term outlook will likely depend less on local demand and more on the oil side of the equation. The latest EIA Weekly Petroleum Status Report said U.S. refineries operated at 92.9% of capacity in the week ending March 20, while gasoline production increased to 9.7 million barrels per day. More refining and stronger gasoline output can help reduce pressure at the pump, especially when supply chains are functioning normally.
At the same time, the broader energy backdrop is still unsettled. In its March Short-Term Energy Outlook, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said it expects Brent crude to remain above $95 per barrel over the next two months before moving lower later in 2026, and it also raised its 2026 forecast for WTI crude to an average of $74 per barrel, up from last month’s forecast. That matters because crude oil remains the biggest component in retail gasoline pricing.
So for Florida drivers, the message heading into next week is fairly simple: prices have stabilized, but they have not truly relaxed. If oil holds near current levels and refinery utilization stays strong, Florida could continue hovering around the same range in the short term. But if crude spikes again, pump prices could quickly start climbing. That is the reality of this market right now — calmer than a week ago, but still highly sensitive to global events.
